Compressor year-on-year growth of 5.5 hard to hide the beginning of the downturn
On the afternoon of March 24, 2015, Cai Weici, deputy director of China Online Expert Committee, chaired the first quarter of 2015 machinery industry economic operation situation analysis meeting. Chen Bin, Vice Director and Executive Vice President of China Online Expert Committee, Song Xiaogang, Member and Executive Vice President of China Online Expert Committee, members of relevant expert committees and leaders of professional associations, and some responsible comrades of China Online Liaison participated in the meeting.
Zhao Xinmin, deputy secretary-general of China Unicom, first briefed the main economic indicators of machinery industry in January-February, analyzed the four characteristics of the start of machinery industry in 2015, and made a preliminary judgment on the situation in the whole year of 2015. Participants briefed the major economic indicators of various industries in January-February, analyzed and exchanged the new situations and problems in the first quarter of 2015, and put forward some policy suggestions for the current downturn of machinery industry.
6.8%, which is the cumulative value-added growth rate of machinery industry in the first two months of this year. It is not only lower than 0.7 percentage points of manufacturing industry in the same period, but also lower than 1.4 percentage points of equipment manufacturing industry, which is the same as the national industry. This is a rare phenomenon in recent years that "not higher than the national industry, but also lower than the manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry".
In response, Cai Weici, Special Adviser to the China Machinery Industry Federation, said at the first quarter economic operation analysis meeting held by the China Online Federation of Experts that the overall situation was grim, mainly because the macroeconomic environment had not fundamentally improved, especially the investment and consumption demand had not yet improved. At the same time, the industry's own overcapacity has exacerbated this dilemma. In addition, last year's high and low growth curve, leading to this year's decline is more obvious.
Initial downturn price index is hard to say optimistic
Cai Weici summarized the performance of machinery industry electronics industry in the first quarter into three types. Among them, automobiles, instruments, basic components, internal combustion engines are slightly higher than the average growth of the industry; electrotechnics, petrochemical and other industries are equal to the average growth; heavy-duty, construction machinery, agricultural machinery, machine tools, etc. or will be slightly lower than the average growth. From the specific data, among the 49 middle-class industries counted by the Statistical Bureau, the growth rate of January to February of this year dropped 30 year-on-year.
Influenced by insufficient demand, the market competition of mechanical products is more intense. The overall price level continues the downturn of last year, and the cumulative price index lasts for 38 months below 100%. From the price index of 142 main products in machinery industry statistics, the varieties with price index higher than 100% continue to decrease, the varieties with price index lower than 100% are still increasing, and the price index is still not optimistic.
Cai Weici said that there were many incomparable factors in the figures at the beginning of the year. According to the analysis, the growth rate of machinery industry will be higher than that of January to February in March, especially in the second quarter.
From the perspective of the internal combustion engine industry, the sales volume of internal combustion engines in February was 3.77 million units, down 27% annually and 6.3% year-on-year. Among them, the growth momentum of the gasoline engine market is strong, the passenger car market still leads the internal combustion engine market, and the small-scale engine market has a good start. The diesel engine market has declined significantly, with some enterprises falling by more than 20%. The market segments matched with diesel engines have declined to varying degrees.
According to the analysis of import and export data last year, although the domestic gas engine industry is in a trade surplus, the unit price of imported products is much higher than that of export products, nearly 10 times higher than that of export products. This shows that although the export products are large in quantity, the technology content is general and the price is low. To upgrade the industry and increase the brand premium is an urgent problem to be solved in the industry.
Accounts Receivable Increases Financial Pressure of Enterprises
Some reporters learned at the meeting that in the first two months of this year, the biggest difficulties facing machinery enterprises are still the constant financial pressure, the increase in accounts receivable and the continuing slump in market demand.
From the perspective of general machinery industry, in the six main products of general machinery industry statistics from January to February, pumps, compressors, gas separation and liquefaction equipment, reducers increased year on year, while fans and valves decreased year on year. The value added of pump, compressor and valve industry increased by 5.5% in the first two months, 7.6% in fan industry and 5.6% in other general machinery industry.
At present, more enterprises in general machinery industry have gradually adapted to the new normal of China's economy, but the high accounts receivable is still a prominent problem facing the development of the industry, according to the relevant person in charge of the General Machinery Industry Association. Among them, some users delayed the delivery or refused to pay for various unreasonable reasons. At the same time, the price war is becoming more and more fierce, some enterprises in order to compete for the market, regardless of cost, small profits or even no benefit to take orders, some at the expense of product quality, disrupting the market. The association suggested that the industry associations should formulate market guidance prices for products, and formulate relevant rules and regulations as soon as possible to regulate the market.
From the perspective of heavy machinery industry, the total output value of the industry decreased by 9.6% in January to February, the output value of industrial sales decreased by 3.88%, and the order volume decreased by 19.35%. The management situation of heavy machinery enterprises is different, the order situation of superior enterprises is good, and the shuffling of inferior enterprises is serious. The market demand is insufficient, new orders decrease year-on-year, and the distribution is unbalanced.
Since this year, the price of new orders in heavy machinery industry has remained low, while the price of some traditional products is still declining. Although the purchasing price of raw materials and accessories has also decreased, it is not enough to compensate for the impact of price decline on profits, and the pressure of enterprise efficiency is still greater.
Relevant responsible person of Heavy Machinery Industry Association said that industry capital shortage is still an important issue. In the current economic environment, enterprises are facing financial constraints, making it more difficult to repay, and reducing the proportion of cash in the repayment. Some users'requests for delayed delivery and advance funds for large-scale complete projects cause the slow turnover of enterprise funds, which further increases the operating costs and risks of enterprises.
For the trend forecast of heavy machinery industry, the Association believes that the downward pressure of the domestic economy is still not relieved, but a new round of development focusing on energy saving, emission reduction, quality improvement and efficiency enhancement is in the pipeline. Influenced by the shrinkage of the market, the machinery industry has been contracting for three consecutive years. Considering the lagging characteristics of heavy machinery industry, it is expected that this year's basic situation of heavy machinery industry is difficult to make a significant improvement. Compared with last year's growth rate is expected to decline by 1 to 2 percentage points.
From the perspective of construction machinery industry, in the first two months of this year, sales of major products of construction machinery continued to decline, market demand showed a weak consolidation, lack of upward momentum. The sales volume of the nine main engines decreased greatly. The leading products were excavators, loaders, bulldozers and truck cranes. The downward trend in March is expected to continue.
According to the relevant person in charge of the construction machinery industry association, the situation of last year's decline in revenue, rising costs, increasing receivables, difficult capital turnover and declining profits are still continuing. Unlike in the past, the decline in business income has increased, the increase in financial expenses and interest expenditure has been high, and the decline in profits has continued to expand.
In the first half of the year, the market of construction machinery is expected to be significantly lower than last year. It is not expected that there will be a significant decline in the whole year, or that it will be flat or slightly increased with last year.
Cai Weici predicted that the decline of machinery industry in the second quarter would slow down and possibly rebound. In view of the gradual effect of the national steady growth measures and the improvement of the industry's ability to cope with the crisis, it is expected that the industry will recover steadily after March. In the whole year, the growth rate of value added of machinery industry will still be around 8%, the growth rate of main business income will be 8%, the profit rate will be around 10%, and the export earnings will be 6%.
Regarding the industrial situation, Cai Weici concluded that:
First, the situation is still grim. The operation situation is generally summarized in three aspects: the macroeconomic environment has not improved significantly, the demand for investment and consumption has not improved for the time being, and the industry itself is in a predicament aggravated by excess industry. At the same time, we must also note that the January-February time span is short and there is some contingency. The higher base of the same period last year is also one of the main reasons for the decline of the year-on-year growth rate in the first quarter of 2015.
2. Increased differentiation of enterprises. Under the new normal situation, the intensification of differentiation among different industries and enterprises conforms to the market law. A number of enterprises with better product structure adjustment in the industries of instrument, heavy engine and internal combustion engine have gone up against the market, and still maintained a relatively high development speed, bringing hope for the healthy and stable development of machinery industry in the future.
Third, it is expected that the decline in the growth rate of the machinery industry will slow down in the second quarter of 2015.